Monday, October 19, 2009

It’s Not 16 to 1, Not Even 12 to 1, But It Is 8.5 to 1- At Least This Campaign Finance Ratio Favors Thompson (David and Goliath Campaign Spending)

When it come to direct campaign finance expenditures we have noted that Bloomberg is on track to spend more than $100 million. (Based on his rate of spending and what he spent last campaign we could project $105 million, but until we find out for sure, which will be after the fact, we won’t know.)

When last calculated, Bloomberg was outspending Thompson 16 to 1. Thompson spent $4 million had raised $8 million and was having problems raising more from big donors. Looks like, in the end, Bloomberg will be outspending Thompson in direct campaign expenditures by about 12 to 1. At this point most of Thompson’s money is coming in from small contributors.

Critical Deadline With Ratio in Thompson’s Favor

Here is a new ratio that has been brought to our attention that is in Thompson’s favor. Midnight tonight is a truly crucial filing deadline. If you donate before the deadline, the City will match your contribution by 8.5 to 1. That means a contribution of $80 is worth $760 to Thompson’s campaign. Even a small contribution will go a long way. To donate go to

The Thompson Bargain When Buying Points in the Polls

Even though Thompson is being outspent by Bloomberg by a tremendously huge ratio, the polls don’t reflect that kind of ratio. Support among voters projected to vote for Bloomberg is still hovering at about 52%. In other words Bloomberg is spending (in direct campaign spending) about $2,020,000 for each percentage point he gets in the polls. Meanwhile, Thompson is claiming each percent of his poll rankings at a fraction of that. He gets each percentage point at about 10% of the price: only $222,000. (Does this mean that, with matching funds each $23,400 the public contributes shifts the polls 1 whole percentage point in Thompson’s favor? Maybe.)

Real David and Goliath

It’s really much more of a David and Goliath story than that. Thompson is truly spending about $8 million dollars on his campaign, but Bloomberg is really spending much more than the $105 million he is spending on his direct campaign. When you tally it all together his campaign total expenditures may be verging on something like $1 billion. To see how what Bloomberg is spending should be calculated see: No Real Debate About It: Press Remains Way Off Track in Presupposing Bloomberg’s “Charity” (Friday, October 2, 2009).

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